Re: [ox-en] The (Open Source) World in 2020 - A History Based Look into the Future
- From: Stefan Merten <smerten oekonux.de>
- Date: Sun, 31 Aug 2008 17:31:53 +0200
Hi list!
3 months (102 days) ago Stefan Merten wrote:
In Germany there is a Free Software conference called FrOSCon_. I'm
applying for a talk there for the topic "The Open Source World in 2020
- Ein Blick in die Glaskugel..." ("The Open Source World in 2020 - A
Look into the crystal ball..."). Here are my draft slides. You may
find them in the Wiki_ also.
.. _Wiki: http://en.wiki.oekonux.org/StefanMerten/FrOSCon2008
I gave the talk last week and from the direct feedback from the
participants I think I did a good job explaining things :-) . Find
included the latest version.
Grüße
Stefan
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The (Open Source) World in 2020
-------------------------------
A History Based Look into the Future
====================================
:Author: Stefan Merten
:Editor: Florian Samson
:Organization: Project Oekonux
-------------------------
A brief look into history
-------------------------
Let's go 24 years back: 1984
============================
.. class:: handout
To peek into the future it is important to understand history
* Free Software very small
* Hardly noticed at all
* Internet did not exist in its todays form
.. class:: handout
But that is one of the main foundations for Free Software today
* A few determined persons with lots of idealism
* E.g. Richard M. Stallman
.. class:: handout
Just founded GNU project back then
* No similar phenomenon existed
* But: Basic principles were already there
.. class:: handout
What the basic principles are follows in second part
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Very beginnings may be hard to notice
12 years later...: 1996
=======================
* Free Software was pretty big
* Linux has entered the scene
* Many contributors
* But it still was not very visible
* Not taken serious by many
.. class:: handout
Company involvement was very small
.. class:: handout
"Open Source" was not invented
* Still no similar phenomenons emerged
* Though the example started to inspire people
* Important: Basic principles stayed
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Good ideas grow because they are useful for people
Today: 2008
===========
* Free Software is here to stay
* Lots of contributors
* A sustainable and enduring economy exists
.. class:: handout
I.e.: A system where goods are produced and distributed
* Though not an economy based on exchange...
* Free Software is very visible
* Using Free Software is common place and growing
.. class:: handout
Companies engage in Free Software in multiple ways
* Last frontier: The desktop
.. class:: handout
But Ubuntu comes for the helping
* Similar phenomenons became visible
* Wikipedia (= Free encyclopedia)
* Creative Commons licensed works
* OpenAccess (= Free Science)
* Free Music and other media (think: YouTube)
.. class:: handout
And some more...
* The successful antetype of Free Software inspired these
* Based on the same basic principles
* Basic principles turned out to be successful
* Also in other fields than software
.. admonition:: Conclusion
The basic principles are strong enough to spread out
---------------------
Understanding history
---------------------
First basic principle: Selbstentfaltung
=======================================
.. class:: handout
What are those basic principles after all?
* Selbstentfaltung (simplified):
* Having fun individually
* While maintaining a relationship to society
* Fundamental motivator for humans
.. class:: handout
Complex reasoning in Critical Psychology based on evolution
* Different for every individual
.. class:: handout
Good news: Every task may find an executor
* Includes responsibility
* Important expression: Volunteering for useful tasks
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Something individuals *and* society benefit from
.. class:: handout
This combination is pretty new to mankind!
Second basic principle: Openness
================================
* Openness in two ways
* Internal openness: Everyone may contribute
* External openness: Everyone may use the results
* Technology of digital copy is the historical enabler of openness
.. class:: handout
Made external and internal openness easy
* "Free" in Free Software really means:
* Internal openness is a prerequisite for external openness
* And vice versa
.. class:: handout
That defines a positive feedback cycle
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Technology may make way for new societal phenomenons
.. class:: handout
*Societal* phenomenons - not only technology
A new mode of production emerges
================================
* Exciting: A new mode of production emerges
* Generally called "*peer production*"
* Mode of production describes societal facilities to produce goods
* Capitalism is a mode of production
.. class:: handout
Feudalism is the prior one
* No exchange in the core of peer production
.. class:: handout
Cannot be explained by classic economic theory
* "This is doomed to fail" - they say
* But: It exists, grows and is adapted in more and more fields
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Something wrong with classic economy ;-)
Power from new principles
=========================
* Fortitude arises from the basic principles
* Selbstentfaltung aiming at absolute quality
* If it is "your baby" you want to be *proud* of
* No boss stops you from doing it
* Impossible if you need to make profit
* Positive feedback cycle of openness leads to sustainable expansion
* Basic principles are stronger than those of proprietary software
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Oekonux thesis: A new mode of production leads to a new society
Five-step model of development
==============================
.. class:: handout
Shown: Basic principles forming a new mode of production
.. class:: handout
Now: Modeling how development takes place
* Germ form = something based on novel principles
1. *Emerging of the new*
* First appearances of the germ form
* Think: Free Software in 1984
2. *Crisis of the old*
* Slump of the old forms
* Think: Crisis of classical Unices on midrange servers
3. *Disseminating and expanding*
* Germ form becomes important *in the old process*
* Think: Free Software today
.. class:: handout
Coexists with the old form
.. class:: handout
Not always peaceful
.. class:: handout
* Key question: Does it keep its germ form features?
.. class:: handout
Here: The basic principles cannot be integrated into the old form
4. *Achieving dominance*
* The germ form becomes dominant form
* Think: Proprietary software on the decline
5. *Restructuring society*
* Restructuring of entire system process
* For software: Free Software is well in phase 3: *disseminating and expanding*
* For society: Peer production is in phase 1: *emerging*
.. admonition:: Conclusion
There is hope! :-)
Successful germ form: 200 years back
====================================
* Capitalism
* A mode of production
* Its development fits nicely into the five-step model
* Emerging phase happened long ago
.. class:: handout
Earliest forms appeared during the Roman Empire
* *Crisis of the old* happened when the feudal principles exhausted
.. class:: handout
For instance: Religious schism in the Christian church
.. class:: handout
For instance: Enlightenment and new forms of science transcended
feudal principles
* *Disseminating and expanding* started with early textile industry (weaving machines)
* Capitalism has achieved dominance in the 20th century
* Restructuring society is still not fully complete
.. admonition:: Conclusion
A new mode of production starting as a germ form *can* take over
----------------------
A peek into the future
----------------------
Some words of caution
=====================
* *Disseminating and expanding* proceeds chaotically
* Remember: The old is fighting the new
* Particularly time lines are very hard to forecast
* Good news: Small actions can have major effects
* So *you* can make a difference!
* External constraints limit seriousness
* In particular: Development of the overall world process
* In 1808 it was impossible to foresee the world of 2008
* Things which are perceived as "natural" today were unimaginable back then
.. admonition:: Conclusion
But the forecast in question is only for 12 years ;-)
Vertical expansion
==================
* Free Software is common on the desktop
* Most software will be Free
.. class:: handout
At least: That which can benefit from the Free Software principles
* Governance issues of Wikipedia will be history
.. class:: handout
Either because Wikipedia found accepted ways to cope with them
.. class:: handout
Or by a more successful fork
* OpenAccess has become a best practice in science
* Lots of Free Music are available
* Lots of [your favorite project here] available
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Vertical expansion is quite sure
Horizontal expansion
====================
* More fields of production will follow those basic principles
* The Basic principles are easily applicable to all creative processes
* External openness is easier to achive for digital products
.. class:: handout
Because of technology of digital copy being lossless and cheap
* Easier as you do not need an expensive infrastructure for distribution
* Some guesses
* Free pharmaceutical information
* Free genetic information
* Free hardware designs picked up by industry
* Free car design picked up by industry
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Horizontal expansion depends on many aspects
Deeper embedding
================
* Basic Principles to become more widely accepted
* States will support this more
* Basic income for this type of activity
* Companies exploit these principles more and more
* See Eric v. Hippel's work on User Innovation
.. admonition:: Conclusion
More than that will not happen within the next 12 years, supposedly
-------
Wrap up
-------
Summary
=======
* Free Software took time to take off
* Basic principles: Selbstentfaltung and openness
* On this basis a new mode of production is emerging
* This new mode of production will dominate in the future
* We are witnessing the first steps into a new epoch
.. admonition:: Conclusion
In 2020 you will know if I was right ;-)
Thank you
=========
* More on this: http://www.oekonux.org/
* Contact: smerten oekonux.de
* 4th Oekonux Conference
* Free Software and Beyond - The World of Peer Production
* 2009-03-27 to -29, Manchester (UK)
* Questions or other contributions?
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Thank you for your attention
_________________________________
Web-Site: http://www.oekonux.org/
Organization: http://www.oekonux.de/projekt/
Contact: projekt oekonux.de